Euro area business cycle dating committee who is drew scott dating
The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in 1980-1982, when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in 1981 was not a continuation of the one that began in 1980, but rather a separate full recession.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity.
Although subject to a common monetary policy since 1999, they even now have heterogeneous institutions and policies.
Moreover, European statistics are of uneven quality, long time series are not available, and data definitions differ across countries and sources.
Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area?
No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.
It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income.
The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP).
The euro area groups together a set of different countries.During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years.The Committee's use of these indicators in conjunction with the broad measures recognizes the issue of double-counting of sectors included in both those indicators and the broad measures.Still, a well-defined peak or trough in real sales or IP might help to determine the overall peak or trough dates, particularly if the economy-wide indicators are in conflict or do not have well-defined peaks or troughs.